Jeju SK vs Gwangju FC
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-11-07 · 06:00 CET
DWLLL
DDWLWThe score model makes a Jeju SK win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 68.8% vs 65.2% implied (+3.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeju SK 1.72 – 1.08 Gwangju FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeju SK win | 51.0% | 54.9% | -3.8% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 24.9% | +1.5% |
| Gwangju FC win | 22.5% | 20.2% | +2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 51.1% | +1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 30.4% | +0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 51.8% | +3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 34.8% | -3.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Jeju SK 48.2 / Gwangju FC 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jeju SK vs Gwangju FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.