Gimcheon Sangmu vs Anyang
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-11-07 · 08:30 CET
DWLDL
DWWDDThe score model makes a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.6% vs 68.1% implied (+7.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu 1.46 – 1.04 Anyang.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 45.5% | 44.4% | +1.1% |
| Draw | 29.1% | 27.0% | +2.0% |
| Anyang win | 25.5% | 28.6% | -3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 52.4% | -6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 31.9% | -7.5% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 56.6% | -5.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 36.1% | -6.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gimcheon Sangmu 45 / Anyang 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gimcheon Sangmu vs Anyang in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.