Pohang vs Ulsan HD
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-08 · 13:00 CET
WDLDD
WDWWLThe score model made an Ulsan HD win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pohang 1.29 – 1.31 Ulsan HD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pohang win | 35.6% | 34.1% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 28.9% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Ulsan HD win | 36.6% | 37.0% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 48.1% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.3% | 27.8% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 53.9% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 32.4% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pohang 44.5 / Ulsan HD 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.