Gimcheon Sangmu vs Seoul
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-08 · 11:00
The score model makes an Seoul win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu 1.23 – 1.41 Seoul.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 32.2% | 25.1% | +7.1% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 26.5% | +0.8% |
| Seoul win | 40.5% | 48.4% | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 51.9% | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | 31.3% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 55.0% | -0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 35.3% | -4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimcheon Sangmu 40.9 / Seoul 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.