Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-08 · 13:00 CET
DLLDL
DLDLDThe score model made a Bucheon FC 1995 win the most likely outcome at 50%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bucheon FC 1995 1.42 – 0.85 Gwangju FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucheon FC 1995 win | 49.7% | 48.5% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 28.9% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Gwangju FC win | 21.9% | 22.6% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 41.8% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 22.4% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.1% | 46.6% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 29.1% | -7.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bucheon FC 1995 17.8 / Gwangju FC 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.