Anyang vs Daejeon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-08 · 13:00 CET
DLLDW
WLWWDThe score model made an Anyang win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Anyang 1.38 – 1.24 Daejeon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anyang win | 39.5% | 32.7% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.8% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Daejeon win | 33.0% | 38.5% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 48.1% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 27.9% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 53.6% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 32.8% | -7.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Anyang 32.7 / Daejeon 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.