Radomlje vs Celje
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-11-08 · 17:30 CET
LDDDL
DWDDWThe score model makes a Celje win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 63.6% vs 59.0% implied (+4.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radomlje 1.04 – 2.01 Celje.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radomlje win | 17.3% | 16.0% | +1.4% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 20.6% | +3.6% |
| Celje win | 58.4% | 63.4% | -5.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 61.4% | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 41.0% | -4.6% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 56.8% | +0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.7% | 42.5% | +0.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Radomlje 47.6 / Celje 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Radomlje vs Celje in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.