Grosuplje vs Aluminij
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-11-08 · 15:00 CET
WLLDD
DLLDWThe score model makes an Aluminij win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Aluminij win — 37.2% vs 32.9% implied (+4.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grosuplje 1.27 – 1.37 Aluminij.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grosuplje win | 32.8% | 38.2% | -5.4% |
| Draw | 30.0% | 28.9% | +1.1% |
| Aluminij win | 37.2% | 32.9% | +4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 48.0% | +1.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | 27.8% | -0.4% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 53.8% | +1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 33.3% | -0.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Grosuplje 13.5 / Aluminij 37.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Grosuplje vs Aluminij in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.