Koper vs Mura
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
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DDDDDThe score model makes a Koper win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Koper win — 67.3% vs 58.2% implied (+9.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Koper 2.22 – 0.85 Mura.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Koper win | 67.3% | 58.2% | +9.1% |
| Draw | 21.2% | 23.8% | -2.5% |
| Mura win | 11.5% | 18.0% | -6.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | 52.8% | +6.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.8% | 32.3% | +4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 51.4% | +0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 36.4% | +4.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Koper 48.3 / Mura 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Koper vs Mura in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.