Bravo vs Maribor
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-11-07 · 18:00 CET
WLDDL
DWDLLThe score model makes a Maribor win the most likely outcome at 35%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Bravo win — 34.2% vs 24.6% implied (+9.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bravo 1.25 – 1.26 Maribor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bravo win | 34.2% | 24.6% | +9.7% |
| Draw | 31.0% | 25.7% | +5.3% |
| Maribor win | 34.8% | 49.8% | -15.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 53.6% | -7.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 33.1% | -8.6% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 55.7% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 36.7% | -6.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Bravo 49.2 / Maribor 49.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bravo vs Maribor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.