Nafta vs O. Ljubljana
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-11-06 · 17:30 CET
LWDDL
LDWDWThe score model makes an O. Ljubljana win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.8% vs 70.1% implied (+5.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nafta 0.94 – 1.56 O. Ljubljana.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta win | 20.7% | 22.8% | -2.1% |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.2% | +3.0% |
| O. Ljubljana win | 50.1% | 51.0% | -0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 50.1% | -4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 29.9% | -5.7% |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 52.7% | -2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 34.6% | -3.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Nafta 22.8 / O. Ljubljana 49.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nafta vs O. Ljubljana in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.