Mura vs Radomlje
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-10 · 18:00 CET
WLDWL
LWLDLThe score model makes a Mura win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.0% vs 66.4% implied (+3.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mura 1.52 – 1.24 Radomlje.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mura win | 42.9% | 46.5% | -3.6% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 26.7% | +0.6% |
| Radomlje win | 29.8% | 26.8% | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 54.0% | -1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 33.6% | -3.6% |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 57.1% | -0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 37.2% | -2.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mura 45.9 / Radomlje 45.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.