Mura vs Radomlje
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-10 · 18:00 CET
LDDLD
LDLLLThe score model made a Mura win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mura 1.54 – 1.24 Radomlje.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mura win | 43.1% | 46.8% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 26.5% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Radomlje win | 29.6% | 26.7% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 54.4% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 34.0% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 57.3% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 37.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mura 45.7 / Radomlje 45.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.