Maribor vs Koper
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-09 · 18:15
The score model makes a Maribor win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maribor 1.51 – 1.23 Koper.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor win | 42.6% | 46.8% | -4.2% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 25.6% | +1.9% |
| Koper win | 30.0% | 27.7% | +2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 59.0% | -7.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 38.6% | -9.1% |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 60.5% | -4.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 40.7% | -5.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maribor 46.1 / Koper 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.