Banska Bystrica vs Trnava
Nike liga, Slovakia · 2026-11-07 · 15:30 CET
LWWDL
DWLDLThe score model makes a Trnava win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Trnava win — 57.1% vs 51.4% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Banska Bystrica 1.10 – 1.94 Trnava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banska Bystrica win | 21.4% | 23.4% | -2.1% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 25.2% | -3.6% |
| Trnava win | 57.1% | 51.4% | +5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 55.0% | +3.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.2% | 33.9% | +2.3% |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 56.1% | +0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 37.8% | +1.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Banska Bystrica 26.4 / Trnava 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Banska Bystrica vs Trnava in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.