Lehota p. V. vs Z. Moravce-Vrable
2. liga, Slovakia · 2026-11-14 · 13:00 CET
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LLLDLThe score model makes a Lehota p. V. win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.8% vs 64.8% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lehota p. V. 1.48 – 1.25 Z. Moravce-Vrable.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lehota p. V. win | 42.8% | 39.8% | +2.9% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 26.1% | -1.1% |
| Z. Moravce-Vrable win | 32.1% | 34.0% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 56.0% | -4.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 35.2% | -6.0% |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 59.7% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 38.9% | -4.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lehota p. V. 30.7 / Z. Moravce-Vrable 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lehota p. V. vs Z. Moravce-Vrable in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.