Petrzalka vs Zilina B
2. liga, Slovakia · 2026-11-08 · 10:30 CET
DDDLL
WLDWLThe score model makes a Petrzalka win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.1% vs 62.6% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Petrzalka 1.78 – 0.93 Zilina B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrzalka win | 57.4% | 64.1% | -6.7% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 20.9% | +2.1% |
| Zilina B win | 19.5% | 15.0% | +4.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 58.3% | -7.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | 37.4% | -8.6% |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 52.7% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 40.4% | -6.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Petrzalka 42.6 / Zilina B 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Petrzalka vs Zilina B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.