Z. Moravce-Vrable vs Slovan Bratislava B
2. liga, Slovakia · 2026-11-07 · 17:00 CET
DLLLD
WWDDDThe score model makes a Z. Moravce-Vrable win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Slovan Bratislava B win — 28.1% vs 25.7% implied (+2.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Z. Moravce-Vrable 1.56 – 1.15 Slovan Bratislava B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Moravce-Vrable win | 46.9% | 50.1% | -3.1% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 24.2% | +0.7% |
| Slovan Bratislava B win | 28.1% | 25.7% | +2.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Z. Moravce-Vrable 37.3 / Slovan Bratislava B 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.