Malzenice vs Samorin
2. liga, Slovakia · 2026-11-07 · 11:00 CET
DLDWD
LDDWDThe score model makes a Malzenice win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Malzenice win — 42.5% vs 30.8% implied (+11.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malzenice 1.48 – 1.25 Samorin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malzenice win | 42.5% | 30.8% | +11.7% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.2% | -0.9% |
| Samorin win | 32.2% | 43.0% | -10.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Malzenice 41.5 / Samorin 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Malzenice vs Samorin in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.