Pohronie vs Lehota p. V.
2. liga, Slovakia · 2026-11-06 · 17:00 CET
WWDLD
LWLWWThe score model makes a Pohronie win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.4% vs 64.5% implied (+5.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pohronie 1.64 – 1.11 Lehota p. V..
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pohronie win | 49.7% | 46.5% | +3.2% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.9% | -1.5% |
| Lehota p. V. win | 25.9% | 27.6% | -1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 56.2% | -4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 35.5% | -5.9% |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 59.0% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | 39.0% | -4.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Pohronie 42.5 / Lehota p. V. 30 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pohronie vs Lehota p. V. in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.