Crvena zvezda vs Cukaricki
Serbia, Serbia · 2026-08-23 · 19:00 CET
WDWWW
LLLDLThe score model made a Crvena zvezda win the most likely outcome at 77%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 4:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Crvena zvezda 2.71 – 0.78 Cukaricki.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crvena zvezda win | 77.2% | 78.5% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.4% | 13.8% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Cukaricki win | 7.3% | 7.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.8% | 67.2% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.2% | 48.0% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 48.2% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.6% | 47.3% | +6.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Crvena zvezda 42.5 / Cukaricki 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.