IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnicki Nis
Serbia, Serbia · 2026-08-16 · 19:00 CET
DWWWL
WWLLWThe score model makes a IMT Novi Beograd win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 76.1% vs 70.1% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: IMT Novi Beograd 1.42 – 1.02 Radnicki Nis.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMT Novi Beograd win | 44.4% | 41.9% | +2.5% |
| Draw | 30.2% | 30.3% | -0.1% |
| Radnicki Nis win | 25.4% | 27.8% | -2.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 42.3% | +1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 23.9% | -0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 48.9% | +1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 29.9% | -6.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: IMT Novi Beograd 42 / Radnicki Nis 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.