IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnicki Nis
Serbia, Serbia · 2026-08-16 · 19:00 CET
LWDLD
LDLWLThe score model made an IMT Novi Beograd win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: IMT Novi Beograd 1.42 – 1.02 Radnicki Nis.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMT Novi Beograd win | 44.5% | 41.8% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.2% | 30.0% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Radnicki Nis win | 25.3% | 28.2% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 42.6% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 24.0% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 48.8% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.8% | 30.4% | -6.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: IMT Novi Beograd 41.9 / Radnicki Nis 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.