Stirling vs Elgin City
League Two, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
WWDWL
WWDWLThe score model makes a Stirling win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Stirling win — 39.5% vs 29.7% implied (+9.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stirling 1.54 – 1.42 Elgin City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stirling win | 39.5% | 29.7% | +9.8% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.3% | +0.8% |
| Elgin City win | 34.4% | 45.0% | -10.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 59.0% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% | 38.2% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 61.2% | -0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 39.8% | -2.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Stirling 43.4 / Elgin City 48.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Stirling vs Elgin City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.