Kelty Hearts vs Stranraer
League Two, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
WLWLW
DWWDWThe score model makes a Stranraer win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.8% vs 62.8% implied (+9.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kelty Hearts 1.15 – 1.49 Stranraer.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelty Hearts win | 28.3% | 30.4% | -2.1% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 25.6% | +1.9% |
| Stranraer win | 44.2% | 44.0% | +0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 57.9% | -8.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 37.2% | -9.9% |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 60.7% | -7.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 39.6% | -7.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kelty Hearts 11.8 / Stranraer 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kelty Hearts vs Stranraer in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.