Forfar Athletic vs Spartans
League Two, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
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LWLWLThe score model makes a Spartans win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Forfar Athletic win — 32.5% vs 22.3% implied (+10.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forfar Athletic 1.25 – 1.41 Spartans.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forfar Athletic win | 32.5% | 22.3% | +10.3% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 24.4% | +3.3% |
| Spartans win | 39.7% | 53.3% | -13.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 57.9% | -8.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 37.1% | -9.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 57.9% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 39.5% | -6.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Forfar Athletic 48.5 / Spartans 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Forfar Athletic vs Spartans in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.