Dumbarton vs Annan
League Two, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
WLDLW
LLLLLThe score model makes a Dumbarton win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Dumbarton win — 53.3% vs 41.6% implied (+11.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dumbarton 1.73 – 1.01 Annan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton win | 53.3% | 41.6% | +11.8% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 25.7% | -0.3% |
| Annan win | 21.3% | 32.7% | -11.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 58.4% | -6.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 37.7% | -8.2% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 61.3% | -8.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 40.4% | -7.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Dumbarton 38.5 / Annan 33.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dumbarton vs Annan in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.