Stranraer vs Stirling
League Two, Scotland · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
WDWWD
DWWDWThe score model makes a Stranraer win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.1% vs 60.7% implied (+10.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stranraer 1.77 – 0.94 Stirling.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stranraer win | 56.1% | 53.0% | +3.1% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 24.0% | +0.7% |
| Stirling win | 19.1% | 23.0% | -3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | 60.1% | -9.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | 39.3% | -10.4% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 60.5% | -9.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 41.6% | -5.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Stranraer 47.6 / Stirling 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Stranraer vs Stirling in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.