Forfar Athletic vs Edinburgh City
League Two, Scotland · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
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WDLDWThe score model makes a Forfar Athletic win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Forfar Athletic win — 40.4% vs 32.3% implied (+8.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forfar Athletic 1.44 – 1.26 Edinburgh City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forfar Athletic win | 40.4% | 32.3% | +8.1% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.2% | +1.2% |
| Edinburgh City win | 32.2% | 41.5% | -9.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 54.8% | -4.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.4% | 34.1% | -5.6% |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 57.7% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 37.4% | -3.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Forfar Athletic 47.7 / Edinburgh City 40.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Forfar Athletic vs Edinburgh City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.