Annan vs Kelty Hearts
League Two, Scotland · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
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LWLWLThe score model makes an Annan win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Annan win — 41.9% vs 38.1% implied (+3.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Annan 1.55 – 1.32 Kelty Hearts.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annan win | 41.9% | 38.1% | +3.8% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.8% | -0.5% |
| Kelty Hearts win | 31.8% | 35.1% | -3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 56.0% | -1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 35.0% | -2.5% |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 59.7% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 38.8% | -1.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Annan 32.6 / Kelty Hearts 10.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Annan vs Kelty Hearts in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.