Dumbarton vs Forfar Athletic
League Two, Scotland · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
LWLWW
DLLWLThe score model made a Dumbarton win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dumbarton 1.25 – 1.11 Forfar Athletic.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton win | 38.6% | 45.8% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.5% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Forfar Athletic win | 31.8% | 28.7% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 55.6% | -13.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 34.7% | -13.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 58.4% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 38.4% | -5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dumbarton 36.3 / Forfar Athletic 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.