Annan vs Stirling
League Two, Scotland · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
WLWLL
LLLDWThe score model made an Annan win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Annan 1.82 – 1.21 Stirling.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annan win | 50.8% | 53.8% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 23.7% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Stirling win | 24.8% | 22.5% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 58.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 38.3% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 58.6% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 40.6% | +0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Annan 31 / Stirling 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.