Hamilton vs Ross County
League One, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 18:30 CET
WWDDL
WWDWWThe score model makes a Ross County win the most likely outcome at 65%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Ross County win — 65.5% vs 50.0% implied (+15.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hamilton 1.04 – 2.32 Ross County.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton win | 14.8% | 25.1% | -10.3% |
| Draw | 19.7% | 25.0% | -5.3% |
| Ross County win | 65.5% | 50.0% | +15.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | 57.1% | +8.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.3% | 37.3% | +5.9% |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 58.5% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.0% | 38.7% | +3.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hamilton 37.6 / Ross County 12.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hamilton vs Ross County in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.