East Kilbride vs Alloa
League One, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
DDWLW
LWLLLThe score model makes an East Kilbride win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.1% vs 61.1% implied (+13.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: East Kilbride 1.56 – 1.02 Alloa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Kilbride win | 48.9% | 54.3% | -5.4% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 23.6% | +3.7% |
| Alloa win | 23.9% | 22.1% | +1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 59.6% | -12.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 38.9% | -13.1% |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 58.3% | -7.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 39.7% | -6.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: East Kilbride 12.7 / Alloa 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open East Kilbride vs Alloa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.