East Fife vs Peterhead
League One, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
DLLWW
LWLWLThe score model makes an East Fife win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 59.8% vs 48.7% implied (+11.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: East Fife 1.22 – 1.08 Peterhead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Fife win | 38.3% | 39.9% | -1.6% |
| Draw | 30.4% | 27.3% | +3.0% |
| Peterhead win | 31.3% | 32.7% | -1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 51.3% | -11.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 29.8% | -9.8% |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 55.1% | -7.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 34.0% | -6.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: East Fife 32.6 / Peterhead 34.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open East Fife vs Peterhead in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.