Cove Rangers vs Montrose
League One, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
DLLWW
LDWDLThe score model makes a Cove Rangers win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Cove Rangers win — 45.7% vs 38.9% implied (+6.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cove Rangers 1.50 – 1.09 Montrose.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cove Rangers win | 45.7% | 38.9% | +6.8% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.6% | +1.1% |
| Montrose win | 26.6% | 34.5% | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 51.6% | -3.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 31.2% | -5.0% |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 55.8% | -3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 35.0% | -2.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cove Rangers 47.5 / Montrose 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cove Rangers vs Montrose in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.