Montrose vs East Fife
League One, Scotland · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
LLDWD
LDLLWThe score model makes a Montrose win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 67.9% vs 65.4% implied (+2.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Montrose 1.45 – 1.25 East Fife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montrose win | 40.6% | 41.4% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.2% | +0.5% |
| East Fife win | 31.7% | 31.4% | +0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 50.0% | +0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 29.4% | -0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 54.8% | +0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 34.6% | -2.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Montrose 48.4 / East Fife 31.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Montrose vs East Fife in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.