Cove Rangers vs Hamilton
League One, Scotland · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
LDLLW
WWWDDThe score model makes a Hamilton win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Cove Rangers win — 24.1% vs 17.8% implied (+6.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cove Rangers 1.02 – 1.54 Hamilton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cove Rangers win | 24.1% | 17.8% | +6.3% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 25.0% | +2.5% |
| Hamilton win | 48.3% | 57.2% | -8.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cove Rangers 46.8 / Hamilton 36.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cove Rangers vs Hamilton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.