Queen of South vs Cove Rangers
League One, Scotland · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
WDLLW
LDLLLThe score model made a Queen of South win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 4:3 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Queen of South 1.44 – 1.32 Cove Rangers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen of South win | 38.5% | 33.4% | +5.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 26.2% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Cove Rangers win | 33.2% | 40.4% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 52.8% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% | 31.9% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 56.9% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 36.1% | -4.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Queen of South 47.5 / Cove Rangers 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.