Hamilton vs Peterhead
League One, Scotland · 2026-10-03 · 18:30 CET
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DLLLLThe score model made a Hamilton win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hamilton 2.34 – 0.82 Peterhead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton win | 70.4% | 66.8% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.1% | 20.9% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Peterhead win | 10.4% | 12.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 55.0% | +6.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.8% | 34.4% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 47.3% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 37.0% | +2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hamilton 36.1 / Peterhead 30.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.