Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
DLLLL
WLLLLThe score model makes a Stenhousemuir win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Draw — 28.8% vs 26.6% implied (+2.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stenhousemuir 1.57 – 0.95 Queen's Park.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir win | 50.0% | 49.0% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 28.8% | 26.6% | +2.1% |
| Queen's Park win | 21.2% | 24.4% | -3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 46.1% | -0.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 26.0% | -1.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 49.6% | +0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 31.6% | -0.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Stenhousemuir 12.9 / Queen's Park 50.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.