Partick Thistle vs Inverness
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
WDWLW
LWWLDThe score model makes a Partick Thistle win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.7% vs 67.7% implied (+9.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Partick Thistle 1.50 – 0.96 Inverness.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Partick Thistle win | 48.1% | 52.3% | -4.2% |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.1% | +4.4% |
| Inverness win | 22.3% | 22.5% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 52.4% | -8.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 32.3% | -9.0% |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 54.2% | -4.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 35.9% | -5.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Partick Thistle 50.1 / Inverness 19.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Partick Thistle vs Inverness in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.