Livingston vs Morton
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
LDWWD
LWWWWThe score model makes a Livingston win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.9% vs 60.1% implied (+9.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Livingston 1.96 – 0.81 Morton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston win | 62.9% | 71.9% | -9.0% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 17.6% | +6.2% |
| Morton win | 13.3% | 10.6% | +2.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 60.9% | -8.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 39.9% | -9.8% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 48.6% | +0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 42.1% | -7.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Livingston 22.8 / Morton 49.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Livingston vs Morton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.