Ayr vs Raith
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-14 · 16:00 CET
WDLWL
WDLWDThe score model makes a Raith win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 72.4% vs 68.1% implied (+4.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ayr 1.16 – 1.26 Raith.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr win | 32.2% | 30.8% | +1.4% |
| Draw | 31.2% | 28.0% | +3.2% |
| Raith win | 36.6% | 41.2% | -4.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 46.4% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 26.6% | -4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | 51.9% | -0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 31.9% | -4.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ayr 49.1 / Raith 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ayr vs Raith in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.