Partick Thistle vs Arbroath
Championship, Scotland · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
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DLLWLThe score model made a Partick Thistle win the most likely outcome at 56%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Partick Thistle 1.57 – 0.74 Arbroath.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partick Thistle win | 55.6% | 66.7% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 20.5% | +8.2% | ✗ |
| Arbroath win | 15.7% | 12.7% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 54.0% | -13.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 33.4% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 48.2% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 37.2% | -11.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Partick Thistle 48.3 / Arbroath 37.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.