Livingston vs Ayr
Championship, Scotland · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
LWDWL
LLWLWThe score model made a Livingston win the most likely outcome at 59%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Livingston 1.72 – 0.76 Ayr.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston win | 58.7% | 59.3% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 22.8% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Ayr win | 14.5% | 17.8% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 55.3% | -10.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 34.2% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | 53.2% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 38.4% | -0.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Livingston 18.2 / Ayr 47.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.