Damac vs Al Anwar
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-08 · 13:30 CET
WLWWW
WDDDWThe score model makes a Damac win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Damac win — 49.8% vs 43.9% implied (+5.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Damac 1.65 – 1.08 Al Anwar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Damac win | 49.8% | 43.9% | +5.8% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 27.9% | -1.5% |
| Al Anwar win | 23.9% | 28.2% | -4.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 49.5% | +2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 29.0% | +0.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 53.7% | +0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | 34.2% | +0.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Damac 10.1 / Al Anwar 28.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Damac vs Al Anwar in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.