Al Taee vs Al Raed
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-08 · 16:05 CET
WLLWD
LWLLLThe score model makes an Al Raed win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 66.9% vs 63.4% implied (+3.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Taee 1.32 – 1.41 Al Raed.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Taee win | 34.1% | 32.2% | +1.9% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 27.2% | +0.4% |
| Al Raed win | 38.2% | 40.6% | -2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 52.8% | -1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.0% | 32.3% | -3.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 57.2% | -1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 36.6% | -3.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Taee 38.6 / Al Raed 29.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Taee vs Al Raed in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.