Al Okhdood vs Al Jabalain
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-08 · 16:20 CET
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DWWWWThe score model makes an Al Jabalain win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 56.8% vs 50.4% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Okhdood 1.02 – 1.94 Al Jabalain.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Okhdood win | 18.5% | 20.2% | -1.7% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 25.7% | -2.3% |
| Al Jabalain win | 58.1% | 54.1% | +4.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 50.4% | +6.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 30.3% | +4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 51.9% | +3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 35.2% | -0.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Okhdood 10 / Al Jabalain 46.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Okhdood vs Al Jabalain in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.