Al Najma vs Al-Ula
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
DWWWW
WWWWWThe score model makes an Al-Ula win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Al Najma win — 31.1% vs 23.8% implied (+7.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Najma 1.22 – 1.44 Al-Ula.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Najma win | 31.1% | 23.8% | +7.3% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.5% | +1.1% |
| Al-Ula win | 41.3% | 49.6% | -8.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 50.1% | -0.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 30.4% | -2.7% |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 52.9% | +1.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 35.4% | -0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Najma 23.9 / Al-Ula 24.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Najma vs Al-Ula in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.