Al Zulfi vs Jeddah
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-06 · 15:55 CET
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LLLLDThe score model makes an Al Zulfi win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 70.6% vs 67.1% implied (+3.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Zulfi 1.74 – 0.77 Jeddah.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Zulfi win | 59.9% | 60.5% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.3% | +0.5% |
| Jeddah win | 15.3% | 15.2% | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 47.0% | -1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 27.1% | -2.6% |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 45.3% | -0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 32.9% | -3.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Zulfi 38.8 / Jeddah 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Zulfi vs Jeddah in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.