Al Adalah vs Al Orubah
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-06 · 15:35 CET
LDWLD
WDDLLThe score model makes an Al Adalah win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.7% vs 71.5% implied (+4.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Adalah 1.38 – 1.12 Al Orubah.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Adalah win | 41.9% | 41.6% | +0.3% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.8% | +0.7% |
| Al Orubah win | 29.6% | 30.6% | -1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 48.5% | -2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 28.5% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 53.4% | -2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 33.8% | -4.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Adalah 43.5 / Al Orubah 34.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Adalah vs Al Orubah in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.